Banana supply faces growing strain from weather, disease and costs

Banana growers across Latin America are facing rising pressure from extreme weather, plant disease, higher input costs and transportation disruptions, putting the steady U.S. supply of inexpensive bananas at risk. Industry leaders say maintaining year-round availability will require more investment and coordination across the supply chain.

Why it matters: - Bananas are one of America’s most popular fruits, and U.S. shoppers have long assumed they will stay affordable and available year-round. - The supply chain behind that reliability is becoming more fragile as weather, disease and costs rise at the same time. - Higher risk in banana production could eventually affect prices, availability and quality in U.S. supermarkets.

What happened: - Banana producers in Ecuador, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Colombia, Honduras, Peru, Mexico and other countries are facing extreme weather, plant disease, rising costs, water challenges and environmental pressure. - Tom Stenzel, managing director of the Banana Association of North America, said producing bananas for U.S. supermarkets requires an “extraordinarily complex agricultural and supply-chain system” that is under growing pressure. - The 2026 El Niño is adding uncertainty across Latin America. - The World Meteorological Organization said in September the current El Niño could become the strongest on record and has a near-100% probability of continuing through February 2027.

The details: - El Niño can bring too much rain and flooding in some banana-growing regions and drought and water shortages in others. - Banana growers are dealing with Black Sigatoka, a fungal disease that attacks banana leaves and reduces fruit production. - Growers are also confronting Fusarium Tropical Race 4, or TR4, a soil-borne disease that can kill banana plants. - Managing those diseases is getting more expensive, including costs for prevention, detection, field containment, research and resistant varieties. - Production costs for fertilizers, plastics, cardboard cartons and pallets have risen sharply in 2026. - Fuel costs are also squeezing the supply chain because of the Iran war, affecting bunker fuel for ocean shipping and diesel for inland delivery. - Diesel fuel is now above $6.20 a gallon, up 76% from $3.52 at the start of the year. - Stenzel said consumers should not take inexpensive bananas for granted. - Stenzel said the ability to buy bananas year-round in virtually any supermarket is a “remarkable achievement” that is increasingly threatened by production and cost pressures.

Between the lines: - The issue is not one single disruption. It is a stack of climate, disease and cost pressures hitting the same crop at once. - The pressure is global, but U.S. shoppers may feel the effects through higher prices or less stable supply before they see the underlying causes. - The industry’s warning is also a call for policymakers, retailers and consumers to treat bananas as a vulnerable agricultural supply chain, not a guaranteed staple.

What’s next: - The banana industry is pushing for continued innovation, investment and cooperation across the supply chain. - Government policymakers, retailers and consumers are being urged to support a more sustainable banana production system. - Industry leaders say continued work on resistant varieties, disease control and logistics will be needed to protect future supply.

The bottom line: - The banana supply that U.S. shoppers take for granted is becoming more expensive and harder to protect, and the biggest risks are building at the farm, the port and the road at the same time.